Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.031965 0.036411 0.041277 0.047006 0.053570 0.060863 0.069590
2025-01-19 0.023810 0.029529 0.036363 0.045151 0.056182 0.069606 0.087242
2025-01-26 0.020788 0.027308 0.035575 0.046869 0.061960 0.081521 0.108946
2025-02-02 0.018674 0.025709 0.035075 0.048521 0.067441 0.093280 0.131529
2025-02-09 0.017049 0.024443 0.034707 0.050093 0.072741 0.105119 0.155392
2025-02-16 0.015205 0.022586 0.033218 0.049772 0.075130 0.112885 0.174051
2025-02-23 0.013847 0.021245 0.032267 0.050038 0.078276 0.121922 0.195474
2025-03-02 0.012482 0.019724 0.030848 0.049364 0.079793 0.128470 0.213536
2025-03-09 0.011677 0.018976 0.030521 0.050331 0.083950 0.139538 0.240142
2025-03-16 0.010677 0.017803 0.029380 0.049810 0.085527 0.146415 0.260256
2025-03-23 0.010195 0.017431 0.029502 0.051398 0.090814 0.160069 0.293788
2025-03-30 0.009210 0.016106 0.027880 0.049775 0.090237 0.163287 0.308497
2025-04-06 0.008444 0.015106 0.026759 0.048979 0.091161 0.169468 0.329847
2025-04-13 0.007591 0.013875 0.025119 0.047076 0.089834 0.171338 0.343085
2025-04-20 0.007347 0.013736 0.025438 0.048868 0.095730 0.187579 0.387018
2025-04-27 0.007112 0.013585 0.025715 0.050594 0.101655 0.204468 0.434317
2025-05-04 0.006881 0.013420 0.025944 0.052236 0.107565 0.221919 0.484922
2025-05-11 0.006441 0.012803 0.025237 0.051900 0.109318 0.230888 0.517912
2025-05-18 0.006106 0.012367 0.024846 0.052178 0.112390 0.242955 0.559345
2025-05-25 0.005700 0.011749 0.024032 0.051475 0.113240 0.250231 0.590478
2025-06-01 0.005491 0.011525 0.024012 0.052485 0.118001 0.266732 0.645676
2025-06-08 0.005156 0.011005 0.023321 0.051940 0.119155 0.275074 0.681860
2025-06-15 0.005036 0.010936 0.023595 0.053599 0.125606 0.296500 0.753697